China's steel exports rose against the trend in 2024, hitting an eight-year high
Date:2024-12-31
In 2024, against the backdrop of global market fluctuations and changes in the international trade environment, China's steel exports rose against the trend, hitting an eight-year high, showing strong resilience and competitiveness.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's total steel exports from January to November 2024 were 101.152 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%. This growth trend is reflected in all quarters, such as 25.80 million tons of steel exported in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%.
Reasons for export growth
Global economic and trade recovery: The global economy is in a recovery period in 2024, increasing the total demand for steel. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 from 2.9% to 3.1%, and the global manufacturing industry has recovered steadily, providing market space for China's steel exports.
Improved product technology content: China's steel industry has enhanced its competitiveness in the international market by improving product quality, optimizing export structure, and strengthening international cooperation. For example, in the field of new energy vehicles, the country exported 818,000 new energy vehicles from January to August 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, which has driven the export of related steel products.
Price and exchange rate advantages: The decline in domestic steel prices in the early stage highlighted the quotation advantage of China's steel exports. At the same time, the moderate depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has also improved the export competitiveness of China's steel and steel-consuming products.
Export strategy adjustment: The export strategy adjustment of "diversification of export destinations" has achieved remarkable results, and China's export share to the "Belt and Road" countries has increased significantly. In the first eight months of 2024, China's total imports and exports to the countries participating in the construction of the "Belt and Road" increased by 7% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 7.7%, significantly higher than the average export growth rate in the same period.
Main export markets
Asian market: China's steel exports are mainly in the Asian region, accounting for 60%-70% of the total export proportion, of which Southeast Asia accounts for 30%. In the first 10 months of 2024, China exported 28.219 million tons of steel to ASEAN countries, a year-on-year increase of 29.3%, and exported 10.981 million tons to Vietnam, an increase of 3.793 million tons and an increase of 52.8% year-on-year.
Other emerging markets: Exports to GCC countries and AU countries also grew significantly. In the first 10 months of 2024, China exported 9.819 million tons to GCC countries, an increase of 2.742 million tons and an increase of 38.7% year-on-year; exports to AU countries increased by 2.481 million tons and an increase of 30.5% year-on-year. In addition, India's steel demand remains strong. From March to November 2024, the amount of finished steel imported from China reached a historical high, with 1.96 million tons of steel from China, accounting for more than 30%, an increase of 22.8% year-on-year.
Changes in export structure
Shanghai Steel Union data show that in 2015, bars and wires accounted for 39% of China's total steel exports, while in January-October 2024, the proportion of bars and wires fell to about 10%, and the proportion of hot-rolled steel increased from 14% in 2015 to 26% in January-October 2024. The overall structure of domestic steel exports has shifted from long products to plates.
Challenges faced
Although China's steel exports achieved remarkable results in 2024, it also faces some challenges. On the one hand, the trend of "increase in volume and decrease in value" of steel exports is obvious. Customs data show that in the first 11 months of 2024, steel exports increased by 22.6% year-on-year in US dollars, while exports decreased by 2.0%. On the other hand, trade investigations on Chinese steel by countries around the world have increased. As of September, countries around the world have conducted 28 investigations on Chinese steel trade, of which anti-dumping investigations accounted for 84.38%, and the risk of trade friction has increased.
Overall, China's steel exports will rise against the trend in 2024, providing strong support for the development of China's steel industry. Looking ahead, steel companies need to further improve product quality and added value, actively respond to trade frictions, and optimize export market layout to achieve sustained and stable development of steel exports.
