Container freight rates remain high, while the dry bulk shipping index has led the decline.
Date:2026-03-17
Since March, the global shipping market has exhibited complex structural differentiation. While container shipping rates remain firm due to geopolitical tensions, the dry bulk shipping market, a "thermometer" of the global economy, has released clear signs of cooling. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has recently fallen sharply, indicating weakening demand momentum in commodity trade and providing some breathing room for the continuously strained global supply chains.
The dry bulk market has taken the lead in "cooling down," with the index experiencing its largest drop in months. Latest data shows a clear downward trend in the dry bulk shipping market. On March 10, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell sharply by 147 points, a drop of 7.1%, closing at 1919 points. This downward trend had already been foreshadowed: on March 6, the BDI index fell by 5.99% in a single day, marking its largest drop since October 1, 2025.
Looking at specific vessel types, the freight rate correction for large vessels was particularly significant. The Capesize Index (BCI), a key indicator measuring the transportation costs of commodities such as iron ore and coal, plummeted 11.8% on March 10th, closing at 2502 points. This resulted in a substantial decrease in the average daily earnings of this type of vessel, dropping by $3019 to $19188. Simultaneously, the Panamax Index (BPI), primarily responsible for coal and grain transportation, and the more flexible Supramax Index (BSI) also showed a downward trend.
Analysts point out that although iron ore futures prices strengthened due to anticipated demand in the Chinese market, the actual shipping spot market is facing pressure from insufficient cargo volume growth. Yannis Parganash, research director at Intermodal Shipping Brokers, believes that while the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on the dry bulk market is less than that on energy transportation, rising insurance costs and cautious fleet deployments caused by regional security risks are indirectly dragging down market sentiment.
Container Shipping Market Diverges: Cargo Volume Drops While Prices Rise, Off-Season Characteristics Emerge
Compared to the clear downward trend in the dry bulk market, the container shipping market is currently exhibiting a more complex situation, showing a divergence between "falling cargo volume and rising prices."
According to data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on March 13, despite the challenges facing China's export container shipping market, the composite index is still rising. As of March 13, the China Export Container Freight Index stood at 1072.16 points, up 1.7% from the previous period. Affected by the continued geopolitical tensions leading to increased transportation costs, freight rates on European and Mediterranean routes have generally risen; while on North American routes, although transportation demand has weakened, spot market booking prices have continued to rise.
It is worth noting that weakness has already emerged on some routes. The Persian Gulf route has seen an unusual situation of "a sharp drop in cargo volume but continued rise in freight rates"; the Australia/New Zealand and South America routes have seen a decline in booking prices due to insufficient or declining cargo volume growth.
Galaxy Futures pointed out in its latest analysis that freight rates have entered the traditional off-season after the holiday. Looking at actual quotes, many shipping companies have begun to lower spot freight rates. For example, Maersk (MSK) has reduced its March quote for the Shanghai-Rotterdam route by $100/40HC, and MSC has also seen a significant reduction in its quotes for the first half of March. Industry insiders believe that with the arrival of the traditional off-season for shipping from February to April, coupled with the less-than-expected rush to ship due to adjustments in the national export tax rebate policy, container freight rates will face greater downward pressure in the future.
